Outright call

Fifa World Cup 2026

Final: Spain 1-0 France (or extra time)

MetLife Stadium · 19 July 2026 · Golden Ball: Lamine Yamal

4/7

Results

Exact

4/5

Scorers

European champions with the best midfield in the tournament. Possession game suits the North American summer heat and the 104-match slog of the expanded format. ~+450 favourite at the outset.

Threats: France, with Mbappe chasing the all-time World Cup scoring record. England for squad depth. Dark horse: Portugal — back them to top Group K and reach the quarter-final, but do not back them further until they win something ugly.

Final revised from 2-1 to 1-0/ET as the tournament has confirmed that elite knockout matchups tighten at the back.

Prediction method

The Method Recalibrated

The Rule

Mismatch = multi-goal margin allowed. Even matchup = lean draw OR favourite to a tight 1-0. Reserve multi-goal margins for genuine quality gaps. Do not pick draws blindly — choose the highest-probability single outcome. (Netherlands 49% win / draw 25% = back the narrow win, not the draw.)

Lessons from the data

Even openers: Even matchups draw without resolving — the clean 2-0 opener is rarer than expected.
Genuine mismatches: Still blow out (USA 4-1 Paraguay confirms the mismatch call, not undermines it).
Hosts and underdogs: Have real fight — Australia beat Türkiye outright despite having less of the ball.
Meta lesson: Right on WHO is better, wrong on BY HOW MUCH. The fix is scoreline discipline: lean 1-0, not 2-0, for even games.

Match log

Matchday 1 — Thu 11 Jun

GRP A Mismatch

EXACT

Mexico

2–0

pred 2–0

South Africa

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · Thu 11 Jun · 19:00 BST

3 red cards. Mexico ~80% territory. Clinical and dominant.

Reasoning

Mexico at the Azteca in a home World Cup opener. South Africa ranked 82nd. Classic mismatch — the multi-goal margin is justified on paper and emotionally. Red-card-heavy Mexico games are still Mexico wins.

GRP A Fav (tight)

EXACT

South Korea

2–1

pred 2–1

Czechia

Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · Thu 11 Jun · 22:00 BST

Hwang In-beom 67, Oh Hyeon-gyu 80.

Reasoning

Korea's tournament pedigree and Son Heung-min's creativity edges Czechia. Narrow win expected — Czechia will create, Korea should close out.

Matchday 2 — Fri 12 Jun

GRP B Mismatch

MISS

Canada

1–1

pred 2–0

Bosnia

BMO Field, Toronto · Fri 12 Jun · 21:00 BST

Scorer call Jonathan David (to score) MISS

Lukic 21; Larin 78. Draw flagged in advance. David subbed off 61 without scoring or assisting.

Reasoning

Canada at home in their first home World Cup match — the emotional wave, the crowd, and Jonathan David in Ligue 1 form. Bosnia are competitive but Canada should control.

GRP D Fav (tight)

CORRECT

USA

4–1

pred 2–1

Paraguay

SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Fri 12 Jun · 23:00 BST

Scorer call Pulisic (goal or assist) HIT

Bobadilla OG 7, Balogun brace, Reyna late; Mauricio 73. Pulisic assisted the opener.

Reasoning

USA at home with a massive atmosphere. Pulisic the most dangerous creative threat. Paraguay defensively organised but outclassed in the final third.

Matchday 3 — Sat 13 Jun

GRP B Mismatch

MISS

Qatar

1–1

pred 0–2

Switzerland

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara · Sat 13 Jun · 18:00 BST

Scorer call Embolo (to score) HIT

Embolo 17 pen; Khoukhi in stoppage time. Switzerland 23 shots. Got the scorer, missed the result badly.

Reasoning

Switzerland are technically superior in every department. Qatar hosting the World Cup once doesn't translate to another continent. Embolo is the focal point and the obvious pick.

GRP C Fav (tight)

MISS

Brazil

1–1

pred 2–1

Morocco

MetLife Stadium, New Jersey · Sat 13 Jun · 21:00 BST

Scorer call Vinicius Jr (to score) HIT

Saibari 21; Vinicius 32. Called the banana skin explicitly. Got the scorer, missed the result.

Reasoning

Brazil should have enough quality to edge Morocco despite flagging this as a banana-skin game. Morocco beat Spain in 2022. Vinicius is the obvious pick for the most dangerous Brazilian.

GRP C Fav (tight)

EXACT

Haiti

0–1

pred 0–1

Scotland

Gillette Stadium, Boston · Sat 13 Jun · 23:00 BST

Scorer call Che Adams (to score) ASSIST

McGinn 28, Adams started the move. Recalibration vindicated — Scotland top Group C.

Reasoning

Scotland's recalibrated approach: discipline over flair. Haiti have heart but no top-flight striker threat. 1-0 is the clean-sheet template. Che Adams as mobile focal point.

Matchday 4 — Sun 14 Jun

GRP E Mismatch

PENDING

Germany

pred 4–0

Curaçao

NRG Stadium, Houston · Sun 14 Jun · 18:00 BST

Scorer call Havertz (to score) PENDING

Reasoning

Curaçao rank 82nd and are making their World Cup debut after losing 4-1 to Scotland. Germany are on a 9-game win streak scoring 28 goals. Biggest mismatch on the slate. One caveat: patience against a low block — Germany may take time to break them down.

GRP F Fav (tight)

PENDING

Netherlands

pred 1–0

Japan

AT&T Stadium, Arlington · Sun 14 Jun · 21:00 BST

Scorer call Gakpo (to score) PENDING

Reasoning

Lowest-confidence call on the slate. Held after a deep recheck — Opta 49/25/26. Backing the narrow Dutch win is backing the single highest-probability outcome; backing the draw means picking the least likely. Worries: Dutch defensive crisis (Timber, Simons, de Ligt all out/doubtful) and Japan's 3-4-2-1 wing-backs targeting the high Dutch full-backs. Still holds because de Jong and Gravenberch control the midfield and Japan miss Mitoma/Minamino/Endo. Gakpo is the only Netherlands forward nailed on to start.

GRP E Draw call

PENDING

Ivory Coast

pred 1–1

Ecuador

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · Sun 14 Jun · 23:00 BST

Scorer call Amad Diallo (to score) PENDING

Reasoning

Even game — market Ecuador 41 / draw 34 / CIV 28. Ecuador are unbeaten in 19. Ivory Coast beat France away on 4 June. Neither side has a decisive edge; the draw is the honest call. Amad Diallo is in exceptional form.

GRP F Rule bend

PENDING

Sweden

pred 2–1

Tunisia

Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · Mon 15 Jun · 03:00 BST

Scorer call Gyokeres (to score) PENDING

Reasoning

Attacking mismatch: Gyokeres and Isak are proven Premier League-level strikers; Tunisia have no top-5-league striker and shipped 5 goals to Belgium. Bending the rule here because Tunisia's clean-sheet discipline and cautious opener style means they'll nick one. Sweden win, but Tunisia make them work for it.

Matchday 5 — Wed 17 Jun

GRP L Fav (tight)

PENDING

England

pred 1–0

Croatia

AT&T Stadium, Arlington · Wed 17 Jun · 21:00 BST

Scorer call Kane (to score) PENDING

Reasoning

Revised from 2-1; a 1-1 would be no surprise. Even European openers often don't resolve cleanly. Croatia are aging (Modric turns 41 in September) but have never been beaten comfortably. England's squad depth is their biggest edge. 2018 semi rematch. Kane the obvious call if England carve out enough chances.

Australia 2-0 Türkiye is excluded from headline tallies — it was an informal lean, not a formally logged prediction.

Accuracy dashboard

Results

4 / 7

57% correct

Exact scorelines

3 / 7

Bang on the scoreline

Scorer calls

4 / 5

80% hit or assist

Result accuracy by matchday

67%+

34-66%

0-33%

Upcoming calls

Sun 14 Jun · 18:00 BST

Group E

Germany vs Curaçao

4–0

Havertz

Sun 14 Jun · 21:00 BST

Group F

Netherlands vs Japan

1–0

Gakpo

Sun 14 Jun · 23:00 BST

Group E

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

1–1

Amad Diallo

Mon 15 Jun · 03:00 BST

Group F

Sweden vs Tunisia

2–1

Gyokeres

Wed 17 Jun · 21:00 BST

Group L

England vs Croatia

1–0

Kane

Spain vs Cape Verde (15 June) and France vs Senegal (16 June) to be added once predictions are locked.